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Abstract


An Empirical Analysis of Turkey’s Trade Relations With European Union and Shanghai Cooperation Organization Countries by Panel Gravity Model Approach
In this study, the foreign trade relations of Turkey with the European Union (EU) and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) countries were examined. To this end, panel data analysis was performed using annual data for the period 2003-2017. For each model formed in the study, the aggregate export and import figures of Turkey to the EU and SCO countries were used as the dependent variable. The gross domestic product (GDP) figures as the indicators of the economic sizes of the countries, the distance variable representing the distances of the countries from each other, and the real exchange rates were used as independent variables, while membership to the Customs Union and the economic crisis in 2008 were used as dummy variables. The empirical analysis results of all models applied revealed that the gross domestic product of the countries had a statistically significant positive effect on foreign trade, while the distance between countries had a statistically significant negative effect on foreign trade. It was determined that the Customs Union dummy variable had a statistically significant negative effect on foreign trade in the model 4 formed, while the economic crisis dummy variable had a statistically significant negative effect on foreign trade in all models. It was concluded that the effect of real exchange rate variable on foreign trade was negative and statistically significant.

Keywords
The Gravity Model, Panel Data Analysis, Foreign Trade, European Union, Shanghai Cooperation Organiza


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