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Abstract


Does Demographic Structure Affect Inflation? ARDL Bound Test Approach
The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of demographic changes on inflation in Turkey. Although there is no direct theoretical explanation about the effects of changes in demographic structure on inflation, studies on the effect of changes in demographic structure on inflation in the national and international literature draw attention. In this study, the effects of demographic structure on inflation in Turkey were investigated by ARDL method. According to the findings of this study covering the years 1971-2020, while the dependent elderly population affects inflation as negatively in the long term, the dependent young population, exchange rate and money supply affect inflation as positively. According to the error correction model, it has been determined that a shock will be eliminated rate of 60% in the short term.

Keywords
Demography, Inflation, Exchange rate, ARDL, Turkey.


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